How the estimate is built.
The model starts with provider-level STEM postgraduate research populations. It then applies a fixed estimated Student-visa share and two visible working assumptions.
The calculation
Selected UK STEM PGR population × estimated Student-visa share × startup-idea exploration rate × traction/incorporation rate.
Value status
- Observed: directly reported at the displayed granularity.
- Derived: calculated from observed fields without statistical imputation.
- Modelled: estimated because the full cross-tabulation is unavailable.
Working assumptions on UK PGRs
- ~40% of UK STEM masters/PhDs are on student visas. 40%. Best available published proxy: the international share of UK STEM PGRs. Visa status is not published by subject. View source.
- The percentage who have explored startup ideas. 15%. Share of postgraduate researchers on student visas who have explored startup ideas.
- The percentage of those above who could have got LOIs, pilots, or raised funding (e.g. will need to incorporate). 30%. Share of those who have explored startup ideas who could have reached one of these milestones.
Current data status
The provider population comes from the imported HESA 2024/25 files. Sector-specific non-UK values remain modelled because the open four-way cross-tab is unavailable. Documented disclosure control and approval of every default assumption remain publication gates.
Sources under audit
- Universities UK International: Powering the engine: the non-financial contribution of international postgraduate students to the UK. Published analysis using HESA student data. HESA-based analysis reports that international students were 40% of the UK PGR population in 2022/23 and that international and domestic PGR cohorts had the same 3:2 science-to-non-science split. This supports an approximately 40% international share among STEM PGRs, but does not observe visa status.
- Higher Education Statistics Agency: Higher Education Student Statistics: UK, 2024/25. CC BY 4.0 for published open tables. Figure 7 supplies observed provider-level PGR and permanent-address counts for every provider reporting PGR enrolments in 2024/25. Provider sums reconcile to HESA's published totals within the expected rounding differences documented in the dataset metadata.
- Home Office: Immigration system statistics, year ending March 2026. Open Government Licence v3.0. National context only. It does not identify visa status by provider.
Limitations
Public HESA subject data identify permanent address, not immigration permission. The fixed 40% value is therefore the published international share of STEM PGRs, used as the best available proxy rather than a direct count of Student-visa holders. Home Office sponsored-study releases provide course-level visa grants but not the current stock of STEM PGR visa holders. All outputs are estimates and carry uncertainty.